Daily Rate Lock Advisor

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Neutral

Retail Sales

Kicking off today’s schedule of events was July's Retail Sales report at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced that retail level sales were unchanged last month from June. This was a bit weaker than the 0.2% increase that was expected. However, a secondary reading that excludes more volatile and costly auto transactions rose 0.4% when it was expected to show a 0.1% rise. The mixed headline numbers allow us to label the report neutral to slightly negative for bonds and mortgage rates. It is worth noting that this morning’s weakness in bonds started long before the data was released. The report certainly didn’t help correct the early selling, but it is not the cause of it either.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

We have two things taking place this afternoon that we will be watching, starting with the results of today’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 PM ET. If investor demand was strong, we could see the broader bond market improve and mortgage rates move slightly lower during early afternoon trading. On the other hand, a lackluster interest could pressure bonds and lead to a slight upward revision to rates before the end of the day.

Medium

Unknown

FOMC Meeting Minutes

The second afternoon event will be the release of the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation and future monetary policy moves. Since the minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during mid-afternoon trading. This is one of those events that can cause significant movement in rates after its release or be a non-factor. Therefore, be prepared for a move, but not surprised if the impact on rates is minimal.

Low

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow has three pieces of economic data for the markets to digest. The first is last week’s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show 266,000 new claims for benefits were filed during the week. Since rising claims are a sign of employment sector weakness that makes bonds more attractive to investors, a larger number would be good news for rates.

Medium

Unknown

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

Next up will be July's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board, who is New York-based business research group, is expected announce a 0.5% decline from June. The indicators attempt to predict economic activity over the next several months, so a larger decline would be considered favorable for rates. Bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, leading to lower yields and mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

July's Existing Home Sales report is tomorrow’s third report, also coming at 10:00 AM ET. The National Association of Realtors will give us this measurement of housing sector strength. It covers a high percentage of all home sales in the U.S., but usually does not have a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from analysts' forecasts. It is expected to show a decline from June's sales, meaning the housing sector softened a little last month. A weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely. Accordingly, the lower the number of sales, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Retail Sales

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

Float / Lock Recommendation